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Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
2015-08-30 23:19:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 20:38:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 21:08:14 GMT
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-08-30 22:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302037 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 After Jimena's cloud pattern appeared somewhat ragged this morning, it has recently become more symmetric and better organized. The latest infrared images indicate that a ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C surround the center, and the eye has increased in diameter and become more distinct. The larger eye suggests that eyewall replacement could now be complete, and this is likely the reason why the hurricane has begun to re-intensify. Dvorak classifications at 1800 UTC were 6.0/115 kt from SAB and 6.5/127 kt from TAFB, with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value between these two estimates. Based on the latest appearance of Jimena, the initial wind speed is set near the high end of the estimates at 125 kt. As mentioned in previous discussions, Jimena is expected to remain in a low wind shear environment for the next several days. However, the cyclone is expected to track over progressively cooler water, which should cause the hurricane to slowly weaken. The official intensity forecast shows some short-term strengthening, following the current trend, and then predicts a slow decay. This forecast is higher than all of the guidance during the next day or so, but falls in line with the SHIPS model from 36-120 h. Jimena is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, 295/13 kt. This motion is expected to continue for about 24 hours while a subtropical ridge remains to the north and northeast of the cyclone. After that time, Jimena is forecast to decelerate as steering currents weaken in response to an amplifying trough extending southwestward from the western United States. There was little change in the latest model guidance, and the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. This forecast lies close to the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.7N 130.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 15.2N 133.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 16.6N 137.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 17.1N 138.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.0N 141.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 19.8N 143.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-08-30 22:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 302037 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 6(27) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-08-30 22:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA RE-STRENGTHENING... ...COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 the center of JIMENA was located near 14.7, -130.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 17
2015-08-30 22:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 302036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ...JIMENA RE-STRENGTHENING... ...COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 130.9W ABOUT 1630 MI...2625 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 130.9 West. Jimena is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin by Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight, followed by slow weakening. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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