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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2015-08-29 04:45:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290245 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 10
2015-08-29 04:44:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290244 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 124.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 124.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 123.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.3N 139.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 141.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-08-28 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281432 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Rapid intensification of Jimena continues this morning. Microwave data has shown an eye beneath the central dense overcast, and a more definitive eye is just now becoming apparent in infrared satellite imagery. With subjective Dvorak estimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an objective estimate of T4.6/80 kt from UW-CIMSS, Jimena's initial intensity is raised to 80 kt. Jimena is expected to remain in an environment of low shear and over warm water for the duration of the forecast period. Mid-level moisture is high at the moment and is expected to only gradually decrease during the next 2 to 3 days. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is showing a 54 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. Therefore, a continuation of RI appears likely and is explicitly shown in the NHC intensity forecast. A peak intensity is expected in about 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening through day 5 due to a slightly drier environment and lower oceanic heat content values. The updated NHC intensity forecast is generally a blend of the previous forecast with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. It should be noted that once Jimena reaches its peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in intensity that deviate from the official forecast are likely due to possible eyewall replacements. Jimena appears to have slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is 270/10 kt. The hurricane remains to the south of an anomalously strong ridge that extends southwestward from the southwestern United States, and this feature is expected to keep Jimena on a westward course for the next 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken, which will allow Jimena to turn west-northwestward through day 5. The track guidance remains in good agreement and very close to the previous forecast. Therefore, no significant changes are noted in the updated NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 12.4N 122.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 12.4N 123.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 12.6N 125.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 13.2N 127.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 14.1N 129.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 17.0N 138.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-08-28 16:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 281431 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-08-28 16:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY... ...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 the center of JIMENA was located near 12.4, -122.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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