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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-08-30 04:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300251 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Jimena continues to undergo an eyewall replacement, with significant inner-core structural changes seen in satellite data throughout the day. Microwave images show a small inner eyewall rotating around an irregularly-shaped outer eyewall at about 60 n mi radius, the latter which could be slowly contracting. Although Jimena's cloud pattern has fluctuated some during this period of inner-core change, its overall organization has remained about the same since the last advisory. Satellite classifications seem to bear this out, with intensity estimates of T6.0/115 kt and T6.5/127 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, at 0000 UTC. These are blended with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value of 6.1/117 kt to keep the initial intensity estimate at 120 kt. The intensity forecast is challenging. The large-scale environment is forecast to remain relatively favorable during the next day or two, apart from some north-northwesterly shear associated with a cold low to the northeast of Jimena. This could allow an opportunity for reintensification if the current eyewall replacement fully plays out, but predicting intensity fluctuations due to inner-core dynamics is nearly impossible and beyond the scope of this forecast. Thus, a slow decrease in intensity is indicated in the new forecast as large-scale conditions only gradually become less conducive. This is a blend of the statistical-dynamical guidance. As Jimena gradually gains latitude later in the forecast period, global models show a minor increase in westerly shear while other thermodynamic factor remain generally neutral, except for slowly decreasing SSTs. These factors suggests a slow decay of the cyclone, and the new intensity forecast is in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus that shows a monotonic decrease in intensity from days 3 to 5. The eye of Jimena has been wobbling quite a bit, but smoothing through these yields a faster initial motion estimate of 295/11. Jimena should continue moving west-northwestward during the next few days as it approaches the western end of a subtropical ridge around 140W. A weakness in the ridge around this longitude should induce a significant deceleration by days 4 and 5. The track guidance is in excellent agreement through the first 2 days, with less-than-typical spread beyond that time. The new track forecast is faster and adjusted slightly southward and then westward after day 3, but not as far south or west as the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.3N 127.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 14.7N 131.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 15.4N 134.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 16.0N 136.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 16.9N 139.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 17.6N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 18.1N 143.4W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-08-30 04:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 300247 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-08-30 04:47:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 300247 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.5W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.5W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.7N 131.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.4N 134.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.0N 136.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.9N 139.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 141.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 143.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 127.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
2015-08-29 22:51:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 20:33:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 20:50:44 GMT
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-08-29 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 292032 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Recent microwave imagery continued to show Jimena's eyewall nearly enclosed by a larger outer ring of convection, signaling that concentric eyewalls may be developing. A moat region is also evident in the latest visible images. Cloud tops have gradually warmed since this morning, and Jimena appears to have weakened a little. The initial intensity is set at 120 kt based on a blend of CI numbers of 6.0/115 from TAFB, 6.5/127 kt from SAB, and 6.3/122 kt from the CIMSS ADT. Jimena may be in the early stages of an eyewall replacement, which makes the short-term intensity forecast a little tricky. The overall environment remains conducive for strengthening, so if an eyewall replacement occurs, the hurricane has an opportunity to re-intensify during the next day or so. The bottom line is that fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24-48 hours, and Jimena is expected to remain a major hurricane during that time. After 48 hours, gradual weakening is indicated in the forecast, with the most likely reason being lower oceanic heat content. The hurricane models continue to show a much faster weakening rate than the global models, and as a compromise, the updated NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the typically skillful models. This solution is closest to the SHIPS model. Jimena has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of 285/8 kt. The subtropical ridge north of the hurricane is weakening, and Jimena is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest through day 5. However, the cyclone should slow down considerably by days 4 and 5 due to weakening steering currents. The track guidance has continued to trend faster, and the updated NHC track forecast is again a little bit ahead of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 12.8N 126.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.4N 128.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 14.2N 130.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 15.0N 133.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 15.6N 135.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 16.6N 139.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 17.4N 141.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 18.0N 142.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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