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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-08-29 16:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 291434 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Convective cloud tops in the central dense overcast have warmed since the last advisory, but the 10-15 n mi wide eye remains distinct. An 0913 UTC GCOM overpass clearly indicated that the formation of a secondary outer eyewall was almost complete, which could be a harbinger that Jimena will soon go through an eyewall replacement. Dvorak Current Intensity estimates at 1200 UTC were 6.0/115 kt from TAFB, 6.5/127 kt from SAB, and 6.8/135 kt from the CIMSS ADT, and the initial intensity is held at 130 kt. This advisory continues to show the possibility of Jimena reaching category 5 intensity during the next 24 hours since the environment remains conducive for strengthening. However, if Jimena does go through an eyewall replacement soon, then fluctuations in intensity are likely to occur, and the hurricane could actually weaken a bit in the short term. The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging after 24 hours. Vertical shear is expected to remain low, and sea surface temperatures remain above 26C through the forecast period, but the hurricane models show a general decay to a category 1 or 2 cyclone by day 5. On the other hand, the global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, seem to take more advantage of the favorable environment and retain central pressures that would support a category 3 or 4 hurricane through day 5. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast shows a much slower decay than indicated by the hurricane models, keeping Jimena as a major hurricane through day 4. Jimena's eye has been wobbling around, but the longer-term motion estimate is 275/7 kt. The ridge to the north of the hurricane appears to be weakening, and Jimena is expected to turn west-northwestward later today. This trajectory should continue through day 5, with a decrease in forward speed by days 4 and 5 when the steering currents become much weaker. The track guidance is still in good agreement on the future track, and the updated NHC forecast is similar to, but slightly faster than, the previous forecast after 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 12.5N 125.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 14.7N 131.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 15.4N 133.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 16.5N 137.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 17.1N 140.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.6N 142.1W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-08-29 16:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA MOVING WESTWARD AS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 the center of JIMENA was located near 12.5, -125.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 936 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 12
2015-08-29 16:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 291433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ...JIMENA MOVING WESTWARD AS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 125.6W ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 125.6 West. Jimena is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next day or so, but Jimena is expected to remain a major hurricane through Monday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2015-08-29 16:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 291433 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 12
2015-08-29 16:33:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 291433 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 125.6W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 125.6W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.1W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.7N 131.5W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.4N 133.9W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N 137.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 140.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.6N 142.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 125.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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