je.st
news
Tag: jimena
Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
2015-08-29 11:19:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 08:51:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 09:08:14 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
jimena
Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-08-29 10:52:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290852 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Jimena is an impressive hurricane on satellite imagery tonight with a symmetric central dense overcast, warm eye, and fanning cirrus outflow in all quadrants. The current intensity estimate is 130 kt, a blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS. While large-scale environmental factors are still favorable for further strengthening this weekend, Jimena will likely go through an eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so, which can cause fluctuations in intensity that are impossible to forecast. However, Jimena is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane for the next several days. A slow decay is forecast by late Sunday since oceanic and atmospheric conditions will only gradually become less conducive, with a more pronounced weakening expected by mid-week. The new forecast is primarily a blend of the previous one and the statistical models in the first two days, with a heavier weight on the intensity consensus at days 3 to 5. The initial motion estimate is 270/8. Jimena's heading should become west-northwestward later today and continue in that general direction for the next several days while it moves around the subtropical ridge. As Jimena nears a break in the ridge around 140W, a significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96 hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new track forecast has been moved only slightly southward, similar to the adjustment made on the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 12.3N 124.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 12.5N 126.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 13.3N 128.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 16.2N 137.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 17.7N 141.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-08-29 10:50:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290850 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-08-29 10:50:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290850 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 124.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 130SE 130SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 124.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 124.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.5N 126.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.3N 128.2W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.2N 137.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.7N 141.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 124.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-08-29 10:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 the center of JIMENA was located near 12.3, -124.8 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 938 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
ep3ep132015
jimena
Sites : [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] next »