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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2015-08-30 10:46:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 300846 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 15

2015-08-30 10:45:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 300845 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 128.4W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 190SE 190SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 128.4W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.3N 130.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.1N 132.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.8N 135.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.2N 140.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 142.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 143.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)

2015-08-30 05:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...POWERFUL JIMENA MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 the center of JIMENA was located near 13.3, -127.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 14

2015-08-30 05:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 300308 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ...POWERFUL JIMENA MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 127.5W ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 127.5 West. Jimena is moving slightly faster toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next day or so, but Jimena is expected to remain a major hurricane through Monday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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