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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2015-08-29 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 292032 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)

2015-08-29 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...JIMENA TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 the center of JIMENA was located near 12.8, -126.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 13

2015-08-29 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 292032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ...JIMENA TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 126.4W ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 126.4 West. Jimena is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 48 hours, but Jimena is expected to remain a major hurricane through Monday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 13

2015-08-29 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 292031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 126.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 126.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 125.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.4N 128.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.2N 130.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.6N 135.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.6N 139.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 141.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.0N 142.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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