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Hurricane Sergio Update Statement
2018-10-02 20:45:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1145 AM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 285 WTPZ61 KNHC 021845 TCUEP1 Hurricane Sergio Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1145 AM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 ...SERGIO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... Satellite imagery indicates that Sergio is quickly strengthening, and maximum sustained winds have increased to an estimated 115 mph (185 km/h), with higher gusts. This increase in intensity will be reflected in the intensity forecast issued in the 2 PM PDT (2100 UTC) advisory package. SUMMARY OF 1145 AM PDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 114.7W ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Pasch
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-02 17:16:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 15:16:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 15:16:02 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-10-02 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 103 WTPZ41 KNHC 021433 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to become better organized on satellite imagery. The hurricane has a very cold cloud-topped central dense overcast, with a developing eye, surrounded by curved banding features. The current intensity is set at 85 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Sergio is forecast to continue moving over warm waters, under moderate vertical shear and within a moist mid-level airmass for the next few days. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely, and Sergio will probably become a major hurricane in a day or so. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN. The hurricane has been moving westward at a slightly slower pace, and the motion estimate is 270/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system will soon be eroding, due to a trough dropping in from the northwest. This change in steering currents should result in Sergio turning toward the west-northwest today followed by a northwestward motion in 2-3 days. In the latter part of the forecast period, the ridge builds back in, and this is likely to cause the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the dynamical model consensus, TVCN, fairly closely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-02 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO STILL STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 2 the center of Sergio was located near 10.6, -114.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 13
2018-10-02 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 546 WTPZ31 KNHC 021433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 ...SERGIO STILL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 114.0W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 114.0 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and a northwestward motion is forecast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Sergio is forecast to be near major hurricane strength by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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