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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 19
2014-09-16 04:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160237 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014 ...EDOUARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 56.9W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED BY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 19
2014-09-16 04:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160237 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 56.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 130SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 56.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N 54.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 170SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 38.1N 50.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.9N 41.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.6N 32.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 56.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-15 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2014 20:34:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2014 20:33:52 GMT
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-09-15 22:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 152033 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014 Edouard is approaching category 3 strength. The eye of the hurricane has become circular this afternoon, and deep convection has increased in the eyewall. Flight-level and SFMR winds, as well as dropsonde data from two NOAA reconnaissance aircraft, indicate that maximum winds are near 95 kt and the minimum pressure has decreased to 963 mb. Radar images from one of the NOAA aircraft indicate that the convective pattern is quite symmetric. The hurricane could strengthen some more during the next day or so while both the atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain favorable. After that time, however, cooler water, drier air, and a notable increase in shear should cause Edouard to weaken at a steady pace. The cyclone is forecast to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 when it is expected to be over very cold water and interacting with a frontal zone. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance for the next 36 hours, and then follows the intensity model consensus, IVCN. Edouard continues to move northwestward but at a slightly slower pace than earlier, 305/11 kt. Water vapor imagery and satellite- derived winds indicate that the western side of the ridge that has been steering the hurricane is eroding in response to a trough over the western Atlantic. This change in the large-scale pattern should cause Edouard to turn northward during the next 24 hours. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward and then eastward when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slow down and a turn toward the southeast is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the weakening system is steered by the flow on the west side of a deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has again been nudged to the left to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 28.0N 56.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 29.5N 57.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 34.0N 55.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 36.8N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 40.6N 43.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 40.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 20/1800Z 39.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2014-09-15 22:33:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 152033 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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