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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2020-09-12 10:43:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 120843 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 3( 3) 34(37) 49(86) 10(96) X(96) 1(97) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 49(54) 22(76) X(76) X(76) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 19(50) 1(51) X(51) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)

2020-09-12 10:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... ...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Paulette was located near 26.8, -56.1 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 22

2020-09-12 10:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120842 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... ...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 56.1W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Monday evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-09-12 10:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 56.1W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 56.1W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 65.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 63.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 38.2N 56.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 41.5N 49.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 56.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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