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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-12 13:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 11:54:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:25:27 GMT
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paulette
Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-12 13:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Paulette was located near 27.2, -56.8 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 22A
2020-09-12 13:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121154 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 800 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 56.8W ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 56.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Monday evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-12 10:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 08:48:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 08:48:21 GMT
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paulette
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-09-12 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120843 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cyclone's cloud pattern has improved during the past several hours and that Paulette maybe on the cusp of becoming a hurricane very soon. An Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) overpass suggested that the cyclone has a much less vertical tilt and deep convective banding is developing in the south and east portions of Paulette. The subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers haven't changed from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals some decrease in the shear magnitude and the upper wind pattern has become much more diffluent. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS and the large-scale models indicate that the shear will relax soon, and Paulette should become a hurricane today and further strengthen to a major hurricane early Tuesday. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical model indicates this scenario occuring earlier, Monday evening. The official intensity forecast is nudged slightly higher than the previous one and is close to the the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach intensity model. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/15 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge/Bermuda high north of the cyclone should continue to build across the western Atlantic and steer Paulette west-northwestward for the next 36 hours. Afterward, a turn toward the northwest to north-northwest with a significant increase in forward speed is expected early Monday and Monday evening in response to an approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough. The track guidance suite remains tightly clustered with just some minor forward speed differences beyond day 3, so it's quite certain that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it's a little too early to specify the exact closest approach. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and once again is based on the various multi-model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming increasingly likely. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch have been issued for the island. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 26.8N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 33.5N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 35.2N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 38.2N 56.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 41.5N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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