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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-12 04:50:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE IT NEARS BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Paulette was located near 25.8, -54.8 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 21
2020-09-12 04:50:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE IT NEARS BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 54.8W ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 54.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area late Sunday or early Monday. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-09-12 04:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.1N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.6N 61.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.8N 65.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 54.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-11 22:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 20:52:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 20:52:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-11 22:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112050 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Paulette inconveniently fell in a gap between all three ASCAT passes this morning, so we haven't gotten any better handle on the cyclone's intensity since last evening's pass. However, Dvorak classifications have not budged, so maintaining the initial intensity of 55 kt seems sound. In addition, although an AMSR microwave pass from around 17 UTC still showed the system being sheared, it also revealed a ragged mid-level eye feature. Since the shear is expected to abate to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, Paulette is likely to intensify, possibly significantly so, and it is now forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The intensification trend is expected to continue through day 4, and Paulette has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda on Monday. Paulette's forecast peak intensity (on day 4) has been nudged up slightly, lying near the SHIPS and HCCA guidance, but still a little below the latest HWRF simulation. Paulette has picked up some speed and is now moving toward the northwest (310 degrees) at 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed since this morning. Paulette should maintain a motion toward the northwest or west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days to the south of a weakening subtropical ridge. By day 3, a longwave trough is forecast to move across the northeastern United States, eroding the ridge eastward, and causing Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the vicinity of Bermuda on Monday. After that time, Paulette is forecast to become embedded in the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northeastward toward the north Atlantic. The spread in the track guidance has continued to tighten up, which increases the confidence in the official track forecast. The updated forecast has been shifted slightly westward around the time that Paulette will be near Bermuda, and it is embedded among the usually-reliable GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA model solutions. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane during the next couple of days and make its closest approach to the island on Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more likely, and a hurricane watch could be required for the island tonight or early Saturday. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 25.9N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 27.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 28.7N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 29.8N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 31.1N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 32.6N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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