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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-12 07:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE SATURDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Paulette was located near 26.4, -55.5 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 21A
2020-09-12 07:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120544 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 200 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE SATURDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 55.5W ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 55.5 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area late Sunday or early Monday. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts/Brown
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-12 04:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 02:55:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 02:55:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-12 04:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120253 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Paulette remains sheared and asymmetric, with all its deep convection north of its low-level center of circulation. Despite the shear, ASCAT-B data that just arrived showed maximum winds near or just over 55 kt. Since that instrument tends to under-sample the maximum winds, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. An upper-level low located to the west of Paulette is responsible for the southerly shear currently affecting the cyclone. Global model forecasts suggest that the shear will continue for another day or so, and only slight strengthening is likely through that period. By Sunday, the upper-level low will move farther southwest and the tropical cyclone will encounter a very favorable upper-air pattern. Paulette will likely strengthen further in response, possibly at a fast rate. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Paulette will be a hurricane when it nears Bermuda early Monday, and it could approach major hurricane strength early next week. The NHC intensity forecast has not changed since the last advisory. It is worth mentioning that Paulette could experience a period of slow development for the next 24 hours, followed by quick intensification, rather than the more steady strengthening shown by the NHC forecast. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda. Paulette has jogged slightly right of track during the past few hours, but the overall NHC forecast track is not different from the previous advisory. A building mid-level ridge to the north of Paulette will likely steer the tropical storm generally west-northwestward or northwestward for the next 2-3 days. The cyclone is then expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The model spread remains relatively low, especially for the first few days. Confidence is high that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it is still too soon to specify exactly how close it will get. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids and is not far from any of the global model forecast. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more likely. A tropical storm watch is in effect and a hurricane watch could be required for the island early Saturday. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 25.8N 54.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 27.1N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 29.6N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 33.8N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 37.0N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-09-12 04:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 984 FONT12 KNHC 120250 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 49(58) 32(90) 3(93) X(93) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 43(62) 4(66) 1(67) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 4(43) 1(44) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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