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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

2020-09-11 22:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 112049 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 56(83) 7(90) 1(91) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 11(63) 1(64) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 9(40) 1(41) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)

2020-09-11 22:50:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PAULETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Paulette was located near 24.6, -53.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 20

2020-09-11 22:50:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 112049 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...PAULETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 53.7W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. A hurricane watch could be required for the island tonight or early Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 53.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or west-northwest is expected through Sunday night, followed by a sharp turn toward the north by late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette should be near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 20

2020-09-11 22:50:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 112049 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 53.7W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 53.7W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 53.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.9N 55.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.7N 59.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.8N 62.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.1N 64.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.6N 65.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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