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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-11 16:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111444 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Despite what is being analyzed as roughly 40 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear, Paulette's center is embedded beneath the cirrus canopy of a strong convective burst to the north. Recent microwave images do confirm, however, that the center remains displaced from the convection. We have not yet received new scatterometer data over Paulette, and since the structure has not degraded from overnight, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. This is in best agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Paulette appears to have turned toward the northwest (305/9 kt) based on center fixes over the past 12 hours. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is beginning to develop to the north of Paulette, which should allow the cyclone to maintain a motion toward the northwest or west-northwest during the next 3 days. After that time, a longwave trough forecast to move across the northeastern United States is expected to erode the ridge eastward, causing Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the vicinity of Bermuda on days 4 and 5. Except for some minor speed differences, the track models agree on this general trajectory and have less east-to-west spread during the recurvature phase than they did yesterday. The GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State Superensemble aids all lie along the western side of the guidance envelope at the time of recurvature, and as a result the new NHC track has been nudged a little west of the previous prediction during that period in deference to those normally reliable models. The shear affecting Paulette is forecast to abate over the next 48 hours while the storm also moves over warmer ocean waters and into a more unstable environment. Given the cyclone's hardiness in the face of the ongoing shear, Paulette is unlikely to have problems responding to the improving environment. Paulette is now forecast to become a hurricane in 36 hours, which is supported by the latest dynamical hurricane models, the superensemble aids, and the IVCN intensity consensus. Continued strengthening is anticipated after 36 hours, with Paulette likely to reach a peak intensity in 4-5 days. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 23.6N 52.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 30.2N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-11 16:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT... ...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Paulette was located near 23.6, -52.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-11 16:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111444 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT... ...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 52.2W ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. Please consult products from your local weather office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 52.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected through early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-09-11 16:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 111444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 62(65) 19(84) 3(87) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 20(54) 3(57) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) 2(33) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-11 16:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 111443 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 52.2W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 52.2W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 51.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 53.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 52.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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