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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 47
2018-10-08 04:40:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 ...LESLIE APPEARS TO BE WEAKER BUT IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.7N 49.1W ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1230 MI...1975 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 49.1 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). Leslie is expected to move across the open central and eastern Atlantic the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours, but some re-strengthening is likely thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada through tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 47
2018-10-08 04:39:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080239 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 49.1W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 180SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 420SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 49.1W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 49.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.2N 47.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 200SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.0N 43.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.5N 39.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 33.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 24.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-07 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 20:39:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 21:22:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 46
2018-10-07 22:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 072036 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 Late-arriving ASCAT data from shortly after 1200 UTC indicated that Leslie is still producing winds of just below 45 kt, primarily in the southwest and northeast quadrants of the tropical storm. Assuming at least a little undersampling has occurred, this would support an initial intensity of 45 or 50 kt, while an average of more recent intensity estimates from SAB, TAFB, and the UW-CIMSS is 50 kt. The initial value is therefore held at 50 kt. Regardless of the exact initial intensity of Leslie, only slight fluctuations are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours while Leslie is over fairly cool SSTs, in part because it will be crossing its own previous track multiple times. Beyond 48 h, the intensity guidance is now in better agreement that some intensification will occur, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane once again by the end of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory by the end of the forecast period, and is close to IVCN at all times. Leslie is still moving east-southeastward with an initial speed of 9 kt, and this general motion will likely continue for at least the next day or two while the tropical storm is steered by westerly flow associated with a mid-latitude trough to its north. Most of the global models still forecast that Leslie will separate from the trough in a few days and turn southeastward, and there are still large differences on exactly when that will occur. The deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement on the future track of Leslie, but the ensembles of those models indicate that the range of possible tracks hasn't actually decreased. Confidence in the track forecast therefore remains quite low. In general, the guidance suite has shifted to the south and west, particularly between 36 and 96 h. The official track forecast has been shifted in that direction to bring it closer to the track consensus. However, it should be emphasized that confidence in the track forecast remains low at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 35.9N 49.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 35.4N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 34.3N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 32.8N 43.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 31.2N 41.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 28.2N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 28.6N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 30.5N 27.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46
2018-10-07 22:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 072036 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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