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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 30
2018-10-03 22:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 447 WTNT43 KNHC 032035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 The satellite presentation of Leslie has changed little over the past six hours. Leslie continues to have a large ragged eye with periodic intrusions of slightly drier air. The hurricane still has well-defined outflow over the northern semicircle. The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on the steady state appearance. Now that Leslie that has begun its advertised northward turn, it is passing over the cool wake that it presumably created during the past day or so, therefore, little change in strength is expected through this evening. However, some slight strengthening is possible later tonight and Thursday after crossing the cool wake. Gradual weakening then is expected to begin late Thursday when the system reaches cooler waters farther to the north. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Satellite images indicate that Leslie is moving northward, and this motion appears to be accelerating. This northward motion is expected to continue through Friday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a shortwave trough to the northwest and a mid-level ridge to its southeast. After that time, an eastward motion is forecast when a second trough approaches Leslie from the north. The latest model guidance has shifted a little to the west in the short term and is slightly slower and farther south at the latter forecast points. The NHC official track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to trend toward this guidance. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 29.9N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 30.7N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 34.7N 57.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 36.1N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 36.8N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 36.7N 53.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 36.0N 49.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Onderlinde
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2018-10-03 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 106 FONT13 KNHC 032035 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-03 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWARD WHILE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 3 the center of Leslie was located near 29.9, -56.9 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 30
2018-10-03 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 941 WTNT33 KNHC 032034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 ...LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWARD WHILE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 56.9W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 56.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion, with an increase in forward speed, should continue through Friday night. A turn to the east is expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Onderlinde
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 30
2018-10-03 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 942 WTNT23 KNHC 032034 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 56.9W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 540SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 56.9W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 56.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 30.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.7N 57.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.1N 57.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.8N 56.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 170SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 36.7N 53.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 56.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ONDERLINDE
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