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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 28
2018-10-03 10:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 003 WTNT33 KNHC 030844 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 ...LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 56.9W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 56.9 West. Leslie is nearly stationary, and little motion is expected today. A northward motion is forecast to begin tonight, and this motion should continue through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 28
2018-10-03 10:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 933 WTNT23 KNHC 030843 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 56.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 450SW 510NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 56.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 56.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 30.8N 57.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.8N 57.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.0N 57.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.1N 56.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 37.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 56.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-03 04:37:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Oct 2018 02:37:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Oct 2018 02:37:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 27
2018-10-03 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 005 WTNT43 KNHC 030235 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 Leslie has been trying to become a hurricane all day, but it is not one yet. The cloud pattern has changed very little during the past several hours and in fact, one could make the case that is less organized that earlier today with no eye feature trying to form at this time. However, Dvorak classifications still support an initial intensity of 60 kt, and this is confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass with winds of at least 55 kt. Having said that, environmental conditions of low shear and a warm ocean favor strengthening, and NHC again forecasts Leslie to become a hurricane on Wednesday and remain one for a couple of days. After that time, Leslie will reach cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated. Leslie is moving very slowly toward the southwest or 220 degrees at 3 kt while embedded within very light steering currents. Most of the global models bring an eastward-moving short wave near Leslie, and this flow pattern should force the cyclone to move northward for the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and will move eastward. The forecast is very similar to the previous one and closely follows both the corrected-consensus HCCA and the other multi-model aids. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been slightly adjusted based on recent ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 29.7N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 29.4N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 30.0N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 31.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 33.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 36.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 37.0N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2018-10-03 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 713 FONT13 KNHC 030234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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