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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-03 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME ONE... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 2 the center of Leslie was located near 29.7, -56.7 with movement SW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 27
2018-10-03 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 175 WTNT33 KNHC 030234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 ...LESLIE NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME ONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 56.7W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 56.7 West. Leslie is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for most of the day Wednesday. A turn to the the north is expected to begin late Wednesday and should continue through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 27
2018-10-03 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 176 WTNT23 KNHC 030234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 56.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 160SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 420SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 56.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.4N 56.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.8N 57.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.5N 57.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 37.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 56.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-02 22:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 20:37:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 21:38:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-10-02 22:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 614 WTNT43 KNHC 022035 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 Leslie is almost a hurricane. Satellite images indicate that a ring of deep convection now nearly surrounds Leslie's large ragged eye. A pair of ASCAT passes from this morning showed maximum winds around 55 kt. Based on that data and a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. Leslie is expected to remain over relatively warm water and in favorable atmospheric conditions for another day or two, so continued gradual strengthening is forecast during that time period. Based on the improved organization this afternoon and the model guidance, Leslie is forecast to reach hurricane strength tonight or early Wednesday. After a couple of days, the system is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 deg C, and those unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with some increase in shear this weekend should cause a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast remains between the aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower HMON and COAMPS-TC models, but this forecast is a tad higher than the previous one. The tropical storm is still losing latitude, with the latest initial motion now estimated to be 205/8. This south-southwestward motion is expected to slow down tonight, and Leslie will likely come to a stall on Wednesday in very weak steering currents. After that time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west and an amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause Leslie to move northward on Thursday and Friday. A turn to the northeast and then east is forecast to occur by the weekend when the storm moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the south and west of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been modified based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 30.1N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 29.7N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 29.5N 56.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 30.7N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 32.6N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 36.3N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 37.2N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 37.0N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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