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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 27
2017-07-28 04:54:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280254 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Deep convection associated with Hilary has been decreasing during the last several hours, and the convective pattern is now limited to a ragged central dense overcast. This loss of convection appears to be associated with dry air that has wrapped into the circulation, as evident in microwave data. An average of the latest Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB, along with ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, support lowering the initial intensity to 60 kt, making Hilary a tropical storm. Hilary still has another 18-24 hours over warm water, and the regional hurricane models respond to this by showing Hilary restrengthening during that time. Given the observed weakening trend over the past day or so and Hilary's current struggle with dry air, the NHC intensity forecast lies at the low end of the guidance during that time frame, and calls for the storm to remain steady in intensity. After 24 hours, Hilary is expected to cross the 26-deg C isotherm and it will be moving over even cooler waters and into a drier air mass during the next few days. These unfavorable conditions should cause weakening, and Hilary is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it lies fairly close to the SHIPS and LGEM models. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt on the south side of a mid-level ridge. This motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the mid-level ridge strengthens. When Irwin rotates around the eastern and northern sides of Hilary in the 48- to 72-h time frame, Hilary could turn briefly to the left before it absorbs Irwin. Thereafter, a slower motion to the west-northwest is predicted as the weakening storm moves in the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the north of the previous one, to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 18.3N 117.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.8N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.6N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 21.2N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 22.1N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 23.2N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 02/0000Z 24.5N 134.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2017-07-28 04:54:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280254 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 7 80(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 20N 120W 50 X 43(43) 16(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 120W 64 X 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 24(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-28 04:53:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 the center of Hilary was located near 18.3, -117.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 27
2017-07-28 04:53:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280253 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 ...HILARY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 117.3W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 117.3 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 27
2017-07-28 04:52:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280252 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 117.3W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 117.3W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.8N 118.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 120.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 124.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.1N 128.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.2N 132.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.5N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 117.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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