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Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

2017-07-28 10:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280839 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 52 44(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 20N 120W 50 2 68(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 120W 64 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)

2017-07-28 10:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HILARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 the center of Hilary was located near 18.7, -117.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 28

2017-07-28 10:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280839 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...HILARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 117.9W ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 117.9 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Hilary moves over cooler water. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 28

2017-07-28 10:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280838 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.9W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.9W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.3N 119.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 120.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.1N 122.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.9N 124.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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