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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 18

2015-06-01 16:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 011443 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 ...ANDRES WEAKENS A BIT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 120.3W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 120.3 West. Andres is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to continue through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. However, Andres remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further weakening is expected during the next 48 hours and Andres is forecast to rapidly weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2015-06-01 16:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 011443 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 1500 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics

2015-06-01 16:43:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jun 2015 14:43:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jun 2015 14:42:43 GMT

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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 18

2015-06-01 16:42:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 011442 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 1500 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 120.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 120.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.5N 124.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.2N 125.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 125.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.8N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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