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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2015-06-01 04:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010231 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0300 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)

2015-06-01 04:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ANDRES STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun May 31 the center of ANDRES was located near 15.3, -119.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 16

2015-06-01 04:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ...ANDRES STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 119.2W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 119.2 West. Andres is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn to the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Andres is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little additional increase in strength is expected overnight, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin on Monday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 16

2015-06-01 04:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010231 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0300 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.8N 120.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.7N 121.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.7N 123.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.7N 124.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 119.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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