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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-06-01 10:37:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 the center of ANDRES was located near 15.5, -119.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 938 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 17
2015-06-01 10:37:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 ...ANDRES STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 119.8W ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 119.8 West. Andres is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn to the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Andres is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little additional increase in strength is expected this morning, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-06-01 10:37:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010837 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-06-01 04:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jun 2015 02:34:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jun 2015 02:31:44 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-06-01 04:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010233 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 The rather unexpected intensification noted earlier today has continued into this evening. Andres has a classic presentation on satellite images, with a well-defined 15 n mi diameter eye embedded within a symmetric mass of very deep convection. The current intensity estimate is set at 120 kt, which is a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak analyses. Andres continues to move slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, in a weak steering current. Within 36 hours, the global models show a mid-tropospheric anticyclone building in the vicinity of the Baja California peninsula. This should cause Andres to turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a slightly faster forward speed. After 72 hours, a mid-tropospheric trough is predicted to dig near the longitude of the cyclone. Andres should be rapidly weakening by that time, however, and will likely not respond much to the flow at that level. Therefore the official track forecast shows only a northeastward drift at 96-120 hours. This is similar to the previous forecast and leans toward the ECMWF model track Even though Andres has intensified significantly today, the numerical intensity guidance insists on a weakening trend beginning soon. The hurricane is likely to encounter a more stable and drier environment in the next day or two, and sea surface temperatures will be gradually cooling. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus through 72 hours, and below it afterwards since the cyclone is likely to be reduced to a remnant low over quite cool waters by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 15.3N 119.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 15.8N 120.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 16.7N 121.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 17.7N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.7N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.0N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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