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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-17 22:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 the center of Jose was located near 31.5, -71.8 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 50
2017-09-17 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 172038 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FENWICK ISLAND... DELAWARE...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH...AND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET...NEW YORK...TO PLYMOUTH... MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND... MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FENWICK ISLAND TO SANDY HOOK * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO PLYMOUTH * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 71.8W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 190SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 71.8W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.7N 71.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 34.3N 71.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 35.9N 71.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.7N 71.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 40.1N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 39.7N 67.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 38.5N 67.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 71.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-17 16:55:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 14:55:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 15:22:32 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 49
2017-09-17 16:50:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 171449 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this morning and found flight-level winds of 86 kt, SFMR surface winds of 89 kt, and a minimum pressure of 967 mb. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is raised to 80 kt for this advisory. Even though the winds are stronger than earlier, the hurricane does not have an improved appearance in satellite images. In fact, the Air Force meteorologist onboard the aircraft mentioned that the inner core of Jose is asymmetric and the overall appearance is lopsided. Jose is expected to be in an environment of strong southwesterly wind shear while it is over the warm Gulf Stream waters during the next couple of days. Although the shear is forecast to lessen beyond that time, the hurricane will likely have crossed the north wall of the Gulf Stream by then, where the waters are much cooler. These environmental conditions favor a slow weakening trend during the next several days, and that is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. It should be noted, however, that despite the expected weakening, the models suggest that Jose's outer wind field will expand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that move into the mid-latitudes. The hurricane is moving northward at 8 kt on the west side of a subtropical ridge. This motion is expected to continue for 2 to 3 days while the steering pattern persists. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to move eastward and should cause Jose to turn to the northeast and east at a slow forward speed in the 3- to 5-day time frame. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous one, mainly because of the more westward initial position. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts from Virginia northward to New England, and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. Tropical storm watches could be required for a portion of this area later today. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 31.0N 71.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 32.0N 71.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 33.6N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 35.2N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 36.7N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 39.6N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 40.0N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 39.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-17 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JOSE STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 the center of Jose was located near 31.0, -71.9 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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