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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2017-09-10 04:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 100252 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 13(20) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 15(28) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) 7(20) 15(35) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 7(15) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) PONCE PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD/BLAKE
Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 19
2017-09-10 04:51:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 100251 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MARTIN * SINT MAARTEN * ST. BARTHELEMY HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 63.4W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 63.4W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 62.9W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.8N 67.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.5N 69.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.3N 68.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.2N 67.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 24.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 63.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD/BLAKE
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-10 01:53:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 23:53:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 21:29:35 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-10 01:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POWERFUL HURRICANE JOSE PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Sep 9 the center of Jose was located near 19.4, -62.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 18A
2017-09-10 01:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 092348 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE JOSE PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 62.9W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Martin * Sint Maarten * St. Barthelemy For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will continue to move away from the northern Leeward Islands overnight. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is expected overnight, but gradual weakening should begin on Sunday and continue on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure, based on aircraft data, is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through this evening. STORM SURGE: Tidal levels will gradually subside over the northern Leeward Islands tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and will begin to affect the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and portions of the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Birchard/Blake
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