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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-08 16:56:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 081456 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane, the first so far into Jose, found the hurricane was much stronger than previously estimated. A standard 90 percent reduction of the 146-kt peak flight-level wind at 700 mb yields an intensity estimate of about 130 kt, which is the basis for the initial intensity. In the short term, Jose is in a fairly favorable environment. Although the SHIPS-diagnosed shear is near 20 kt, the hurricane is small enough that it has thus far remained sheltered from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Irma to the west. Internal dynamics will therefore most likely be the driving factor of Jose's intensity for the next day or so. After that time, all of the intensity guidance forecasts weakening, perhaps assuming that eventually the shear will begin to affect the hurricane. Due to the very high initial intensity of Jose, the intensity forecast is quite a bit higher than the model consensus, even after adjusting for the initial intensity. However, the NHC forecast still follows the model trend of steady weakening beyond 24 hours. The aircraft data also indicated that the center of Jose is a little farther south than previously estimated. Because of that, the NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly south and west of the previous one. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the track forecast, and Jose is still expected to turn northwest before reaching the Leeward Islands on Saturday, as the subtropical ridge begins to retreat eastward. There is fairly good agreement between the global models for the first 48 h. After that, it is still unclear if Jose will begin to move east with an approaching mid-latitude mid-level trough, or if it will remain trapped in light steering flow. As a course of least regret, my forecast splits the difference between these scenarios and shows a slow northeastward motion at day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.3N 57.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.8N 59.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.7N 61.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 19.0N 62.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 20.6N 65.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 24.2N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 26.4N 68.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 28.0N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 13
2017-09-08 16:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 ...JOSE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 57.1W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for St. Thomas and St. John. The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 57.1 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will pass near or east of the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday. Recent data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or so, and gradual weakening is expected after that. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure indicated by data from the aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-09-08 16:52:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 081452 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 2(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 18(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 18(19) 62(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 2( 2) 45(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 27(28) 30(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 2 87(89) 6(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) BARBUDA 50 X 48(48) 27(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) BARBUDA 64 X 19(19) 28(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ANTIGUA 34 2 71(73) 7(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ANTIGUA 50 X 26(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ANTIGUA 64 X 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GUADELOUPE 34 2 30(32) 4(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GUADELOUPE 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-09-08 16:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 081452 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF SINT MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SINT MAARTEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... AND ANGUILLA * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... AND ANGUILLA * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SINT MAARTEN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 57.1W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 150SW 195NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 57.1W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 56.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.8N 59.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.7N 61.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 85SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.6N 65.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.2N 68.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.4N 68.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 57.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-08 15:55:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS JOSE IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 10:00 AM AST Fri Sep 8 the center of Jose was located near 16.2, -56.9 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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