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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-08-27 04:44:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 270244 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 11(27) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 9(26) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 12(34) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 7(37) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 6(32) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) 3(32) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 8(32) 2(34) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 2(27) 1(28) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26) 1(27) X(27) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JUAN 34 X 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN JUAN 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 23(23) 9(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X 18(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAINT MAARTEN 34 5 42(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 11 33(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 43 11(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ANTIGUA 34 42 8(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GUADELOUPE 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 9
2015-08-27 04:44:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270244 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 60.2W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevisis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 60.2 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion with the same forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands early Thursday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later on Thursday, and be near or just north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy squalls to the north and east of the center. No significant change in strength or perhaps some slight weakening is anticipated during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands early Thursday, and reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic through Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 9
2015-08-27 04:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 270243 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * MONTSERRAT * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 60.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 45SE 45SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 60.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.4N 62.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N 70.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.0N 78.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 60.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-27 01:41:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2015 23:41:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2015 20:50:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-27 01:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Aug 26 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.7, -59.5 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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