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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-27 07:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 27 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.8, -60.8 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 9A
2015-08-27 07:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 ...ERIKA NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 60.8W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevisis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 60.8 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west to west- northwest motion with the same forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands during the next few hours, move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and be near or just north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy squalls to the north and east of the center. No significant change in strength is anticipated during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands in the next few hours, and reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic through Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-27 05:12:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 02:46:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 03:06:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-08-27 04:45:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 270244 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 Erika is a very disorganized tropical storm. Although convection has increased and is a little closer to the center tonight, data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the surface pressure is not falling, and the maximum winds remain about 40 kt. These winds are confined to squalls to the north and east of the center. Erika will be moving through a hostile wind shear environment as predicted by global models and the SHIPS guidance. On this basis, the NHC forecast weakens Erika to a 35-kt tropical storm and keeps that intensity for the next 48 hours. Erika, however, could even degenerate into a trough during the next day or so. If Erika survives the next 3 days and reaches the Bahamas, the environment is expected to become quite favorable. In fact, global models and the HWRF/GFDL pair forecast Erika to become a hurricane by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little below the intensity consensus to reflect the possibility that the cyclone could dissipate before it reaches the Bahamas, and then it will be too late to take advantage of the more conducive environment there. Fixes from the reconnaissance planes indicate that Erika is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within well-established steering currents south of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This persistent pattern will likely keep the cyclone or its remnants, in case it weakens, on a west to west-northwest motion for the next 3 days. After that time, the system will be in between the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and a mid-level trough, which is forecast to be nearly stationary along the east-central portion of the United States. This will force the cyclone to turn more to the northwest or even northward. Guidance shifted farther east tonight, and consequently, the NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly eastward, and it is very close to the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS models. One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range where the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.7N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.4N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 21.2N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 26.0N 78.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-27 04:44:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 26 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.7, -60.2 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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