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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-08-27 16:58:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 271457 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 Erika is not well organized at this time. Although deep convection increased overnight and early today during the diurnal maximum, with considerable lightning activity, banding features were lacking. The convection is also not well organized on the Guadeloupe radar imagery. Recent high-resolution visible imagery shows the low-level center becoming exposed, again, to the northwest of the main area of thunderstorms. Data from the aircraft do not indicate any strengthening, and the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. The latest aircraft fixes show that the center has apparently reformed farther to the south of previous estimates. With some adjustments to the previous location, the initial motion estimate is kept at 270/14. For the next few days, Erika should move west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period, as the tropical cyclone nears the western periphery of the ridge, a turn to the northwest and north-northwest should occur. However there is uncertainty as to how soon and how sharp this turn will take place. The future track of Erika is also dependent on its intensity, with a weaker system likely to move more to the west and a stronger cyclone more to the east. There is substantial spread in the track models at days 3 to 5, partially due to differences in model-predicted intensity. The official track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous one mainly due to the adjustment in the current center position. This is close to the model consensus. As expected, Erika is being disrupted by an unfavorable atmospheric environment, and this disruption is expected to continue for the next couple of days. No significant strengthening is expected until later in the forecast period. In addition, with the reformation of the center to the south of the previous track, the likelihood of interaction with the land mass of Hispaniola has increased. This has implications for Hispaniola, of course, but also for the track and intensity of Erika after that. In short, potential impacts for the Bahamas and beyond are unusually uncertain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 17.5N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.8N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 23.9N 77.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 26.5N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-27 16:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 27 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.4, -63.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-08-27 16:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 271457 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 12(27) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 12(31) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 12(31) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 12(35) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 10(39) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 9(40) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 8(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 7(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 9(28) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 10(27) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 10(24) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) 9(44) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 17(42) 3(45) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 13(41) 3(44) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 6(45) 1(46) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 27(35) 2(37) 2(39) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 12(42) X(42) X(42) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 21(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 2(16) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) 1(14) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 29(30) 11(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 3 54(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) PONCE 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PONCE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 7 61(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SAN JUAN 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 38 25(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) SAINT THOMAS 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 64 19(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT CROIX 50 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BARBUDA 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 11
2015-08-27 16:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 271457 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 ...ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 63.3W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has extended the Tropical Storm Watch westward along the north coast of the Dominican Republic to the border of Haiti. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border of Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 63.3 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands through early this afternoon, and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands through early this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday and the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and the Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeast Bahamas through Saturday. Dominica reported nearly 9 inches of rainfall overnight, with significant flooding occurring on the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-08-27 16:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 271453 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE BORDER OF HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * MONTSERRAT * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER OF HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 63.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 63.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 62.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 65.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.8N 67.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 73.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.9N 77.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 63.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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