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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 12

2015-08-27 22:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 272036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * MONTSERRAT * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 64.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 64.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.9N 66.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.2N 69.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.7N 72.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.9N 78.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 27.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics

2015-08-27 19:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 17:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 15:06:50 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)

2015-08-27 19:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERIKA SLIGHTLY WEAKER... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.5, -63.8 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 11A

2015-08-27 19:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 271733 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 ...ERIKA SLIGHTLY WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 63.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda. The government of the Dominican Republic has extended the Tropical Storm Watch southward to Isla Saona. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands for the next few hours, and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands through early this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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