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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-09-18 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181433 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 After the burst of convection overnight, shear and dry air appear to be getting the best of the depression, with no deep convection remaining near the low-level center. If deep convection does not return, the depression could be declared a remnant low by tonight. Weakening is forecast as the depression and its remnant low gradually spin down and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Visible imagery shows the low-level center has been moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 295/7. The initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward shift of the NHC track forecast this cycle of about a degree. The NHC forecast shows the shallow cyclone moving generally west-northwestward through dissipation as it is steered by the low-level ridge to the north. The official forecast continues to favor the weaker models, such as the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean, on the left side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.7N 47.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.2N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1200Z 18.9N 49.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 19.6N 51.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 20.4N 52.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 21.5N 55.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression TEN (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-18 16:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of TEN was located near 13.1, -36.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-09-18 16:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181432 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure over the tropical eastern Atlantic has acquired sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical depression. The low-level center appears embedded beneath a relatively small cluster of deep convection, but convective banding is also increasing to the west and north. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and recent ASCAT data. The depression is located near the southwestern edge of a mid-level anticyclone, giving the cyclone an initial motion of 285/8 kt. The anticyclone is expected to move westward in tandem with the depression over the next couple of days, keeping it on a general west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5, however, there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast. The GFS and GFDL show the cyclone feeling the influence of an amplifying deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic, which turns the depression northward. The ECMWF and UKMET, on the other hand, keep the ridge as the dominant influence and continue a west-northwestward motion. Due to the large spread in the guidance, the official forecast shows the cyclone slowing down considerably by days 4 and 5, and is a little west of the model consensus aids at those times. The environment looks conducive for at least gradual strengthening during the forecast period. Sea surface temperatures are warm, vertical shear should remain generally low, and environmental moisture patterns appear favorable for at least the next two days. Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models show the cyclone threading the needle beneath a narrow upper-level ridge, with mid-level dry air possibly getting into the western part of the cyclone's circulation. This pattern makes the intensity forecast complicated because hostile upper-level winds won't be too far away, and the ultimate strength of the cyclone will depend heavily on its eventual track. For now, the NHC official forecast shows only gradual strengthening through day 4, more or less in line with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 13.1N 36.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 13.4N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 14.2N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 15.2N 40.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 16.4N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 18.3N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 19.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 20.0N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-09-18 16:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 181431 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 36.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 36.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 36.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.4N 37.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.2N 39.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.2N 40.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.4N 43.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 46.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 19.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 36.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-09-18 16:31:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 000 FONT14 KNHC 181431 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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