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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-09-17 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT24 KNHC 172034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 44.8W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 44.8W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.2N 45.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 46.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.0N 47.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.7N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2015-09-17 17:08:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2015 14:32:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2015 15:04:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-09-17 16:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 171434 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015 The center of the depression can be seen in visible imagery exposed to the west of what remains of the deep convection, due to about 25 kt of shear over the cyclone as indicated by UW-CIMSS satellite analyses. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environmental conditions become even less favorable with time, with the shear forecast to continue while the cyclone moves into an increasingly dry environment. These factors should result in slow weakening, and the NHC forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, with dissipation expected in 4 to 5 days. The initial position of the depression is a little south of that from the previous advisory, as the partially decoupled low-level circulation is moving northwestward at about 5 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed, as the weakening cyclone should move generally northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours and then turn west-northwestward as a shallower system. The new NHC track is in best agreement with the GFS and shallow BAM and lies south of the multi-model consensus. This forecast is similar to the previous one updated for the initial position and motion. There are a couple of alternate scenarios, however. The depression or its remnants could merge with the disturbance to its east as seen in the UKMET solution or survive as its own entity a little longer as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast. However, the NHC track forecast continues to favor a solution with a weakening cyclone that remains separate from the disturbance to the east and dissipates by 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.1N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.8N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.8N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 19.5N 49.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 20.5N 51.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z 22.0N 54.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092015)
2015-09-17 16:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 17 the center of NINE was located near 16.1, -45.2 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 5
2015-09-17 16:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171431 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 45.2W ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 45.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could weaken to a remnant low by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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