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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-09-17 16:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT24 KNHC 171430 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1500 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 45.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 45.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.8N 45.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.8N 46.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 47.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 51.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 54.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 45.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-09-17 16:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 000 FONT14 KNHC 171430 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1500 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2015-09-17 10:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2015 08:38:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2015 08:50:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-17 10:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170836 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015 Tropical Depression Nine continues to have a sheared appearance with an area of strong convection located 75-100 n mi east of the low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 30 kt, and reports from NOAA buoy 41041 indicate that the center pressure has fallen below 1007 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 30 kt. The depression is located between a developing upper-level low to its northwest and a tropical disturbance to the southeast. The global models are in poor agreement on how the depression will interact with these systems, which makes for a low confidence intensity forecast. The UKMET and Canadian models merge the depression with the disturbance as the latter system intensifies. The NAVGEM shows the depression surviving for several days as the disturbance weakens. The GFS weakens both the depression and the disturbance while developing another low pressure area nearby. Finally, the ECMWF keeps the depression separate from the other disturbance and forecasts it to survive for five days. Even if the depression and the disturbance do not merge, the upper-level low is likely to cause 20-25 kt of shear over the depression for at least 3-4 days. The new intensity forecast follows the no merger scenario but calls for no additional strengthening due to the shear. The depression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 hours and dissipate completely after 96 hours. Assuming that the depression and the disturbance do not merge, a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally northwestward through the forecast period. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, and it lies to the south of the center of the guidance envelope between the consensus models and the BAM shallow. An alternative forecast scenario is that the depression could move erratically if it and the disturbance get closer enough to try to merge. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 16.3N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.1N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 19.1N 47.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 20.0N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z 21.0N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z 22.5N 53.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-09-17 10:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 000 FONT14 KNHC 170836 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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