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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-18 04:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180233 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 The depression consists of a circulation of low clouds with a very small patch of deep convection to the north of the center. Based on continuity and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is kept at 25 kt. Given that 20 to 25 kt of shear and dry air are expected to continue in the vicinity of the depression, weakening is forecast, and the depression will likely become a remnant low in about 12 hours or so. Satellite fixes show a motion toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 6 kt. The depression has become a shallow cyclone, and the subtropical high is forecast to rebuild to the north. Consequently, the depression or the remnant low is forecast to turn toward the northwest and then west-northwest. This turn to the left is the solution provided by most of the track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.3N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 18.0N 45.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 19.7N 48.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z 22.0N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-09-18 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 000 FONT14 KNHC 180233 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092015)
2015-09-18 04:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 17 the center of NINE was located near 17.3, -45.3 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 7
2015-09-18 04:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 45.3W ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was estimated near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 45.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is moving into a very hostile environment, and is forecast to weaken to a remnant low on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-09-18 04:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT24 KNHC 180232 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 45.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 45.3W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 45.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.7N 48.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 45.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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