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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2015-09-17 22:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2015 20:36:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2015 20:50:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-17 22:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 172034 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 The depression remains poorly organized, with the center still exposed to the west of the deep convection. A few bursts of convection have been trying to redevelop closer to the center, but the 20 to 25 kt of shear is keeping the convection more than a degree from the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on ASCAT data from earlier today. The depression should continue to slowly spin down due to shear and dry air in the mid and upper levels. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours, although timing when deep convection will dissipate is highly uncertain. The low-level circulation is forecast to dissipate in 4 to 5 days, in best agreement with the latest GFS forecast. The motion of the center has been slow and erratic today, with an has initial motion estimate of 005/03 reflecting a jog to the right during the past few hours. All of the guidance, even the shallow BAM, is insistent on a turn back toward the northwest in the next 12 to 24 hours, and that is reflected in the NHC track forecast. Through 24 hours the NHC track is on the right side of the guidance to account for the initial motion. After that time, a gradual bend toward the west-northwest is forecast as the shallow system becomes steered by the low-level flow. Later in the period the NHC track is close to the previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion and is near the shallow BAMS and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.5N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.2N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 18.2N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 19.0N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 19.7N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z 20.7N 51.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z 22.0N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-09-17 22:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 000 FONT14 KNHC 172034 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092015)
2015-09-17 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION JOGS NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 17 the center of NINE was located near 16.5, -44.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 6
2015-09-17 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT34 KNHC 172034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION JOGS NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 44.8W ABOUT 1100 MI...1765 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 44.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast tonight, followed by a turn to the northwest on Friday, and a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, however, the depression is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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