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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092015)
2015-09-17 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 17 the center of NINE was located near 16.3, -45.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 4
2015-09-17 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT34 KNHC 170836 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 45.3W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ABOUT 1410 MI...2275 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 45.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression could degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-09-17 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170836 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 45.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 45.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 45.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 45.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 46.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.1N 47.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 48.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 45.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2015-09-17 05:08:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2015 02:34:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2015 03:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-17 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170233 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015 The depression continues to be sheared with the low-level center well removed from the deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have decreased tonight, but still support an initial intensity of 25 kt. Most of the global models bring even stronger upper-level westerly winds over the cyclone, and this should result in weakening. The depression could still produce intermittent bursts of convection near the center during the next day or so, but the overall trend is for the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low in two days or earlier. The low-level center is difficult to locate on infrared images. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 6 kt, while embedded within light steering currents. Since the depression is becoming a shallow cyclone, it will likely be steered toward the northwest and then west-northwest by the low-level flow around the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is on the southern edge of the guidance envelope, leaning toward BAM shallow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 15.8N 45.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.6N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.6N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 18.8N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 19.8N 47.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 21.0N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 22.0N 52.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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