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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-18 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182034 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has continued to improve, with well-defined convective banding wrapping around the center. 1800 UTC Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support tropical storm intensity, but since ASCAT data from earlier this morning only showed 20 kt of wind in the inner core, the initial intensity is only being raised to 30 kt for now. Barring any unexpected changes, the depression will likely be a tropical storm by this evening. The environment appears generally conducive for gradual strengthening during the next few days, but the global models show that the cyclone will be located precariously beneath a narrow upper-level ridge, especially on days 3 through 5. Even a slight deviation from this pattern could put the cyclone in a higher-shear environment and thus limit intensification, or even induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual strengthening through the forecast period and is close to a consensus of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The initial motion is 285/7 kt, with the depression being steered by a mid-level anticyclone to its northwest. This anticyclone is expected to move westward at the same pace as the depression during the next few days, maintaining a west-northwestward motion through 48 hours. After that time, the steering currents are forecast to collapse near the cyclone when a deep-layer trough amplifies over the eastern Atlantic. As a result, the models show very slow motion occurring by days 4 and 5, and the updated NHC track forecast shows the cyclone becoming stationary at the end of the forecast period. This forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 13.9N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.9N 40.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 16.1N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.2N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 19.5N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 20.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 20.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression TEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-09-18 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 182034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-09-18 22:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 37.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 37.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.9N 38.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.9N 40.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.1N 42.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.2N 44.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.5N 47.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 20.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 37.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-09-18 22:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 182032 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 Deep convection has redeveloped north of the center of the depression this afternoon, buying the system some more time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates. Given the unfavorable environment of shear and dry air, the system is still expected to become a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the weakening low is expected to open up into a trough as shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts. The motion of the low-level center has been a little erratic during the past few hours, but a long-term average yields a motion of 300/05. A general west-northwestward motion driven by the low-level ridge to the north is forecast until dissipation, in agreement with the GFS model. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.0N 47.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.4N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 19.6N 51.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 20.2N 53.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092015)
2015-09-18 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SATURDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of NINE was located near 18.0, -47.3 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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