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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092015)

2015-09-18 16:30:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of NINE was located near 17.7, -47.1 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 9

2015-09-18 16:30:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT34 KNHC 181430 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 47.1W ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 47.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 9

2015-09-18 16:30:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT24 KNHC 181430 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 47.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 47.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 46.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N 48.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.9N 49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 51.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.4N 52.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 55.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics

2015-09-18 11:07:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2015 08:44:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2015 09:03:45 GMT

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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 8

2015-09-18 10:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180842 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 A burst of convection with cloud tops colder than -70C has developed near and northeast of the center of Tropical Depression Nine. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 25 kt, and that will be the initial intensity. The depression continues to be in an environment of 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air being advected into the system. The dynamical models suggest these conditions should persist for at least 48 hours, and based on this the depression is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or less. The initial motion remains 330/6. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to steer it or its remnants generally northwestward for the next several days. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, with a little nudge toward the south during the first 48 hours due to the initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.6N 45.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 18.3N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 19.2N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1800Z 19.9N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 20.7N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 22.5N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z 24.0N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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