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Tropical Depression IVO Public Advisory Number 12
2013-08-25 10:31:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 250831 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 114.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. IVO SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MIDDAY. RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM IVO WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO ARE STILL AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression IVO Graphics
2013-08-25 05:08:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2013 02:32:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2013 03:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-08-25 04:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250231 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BECOME DECOUPLED. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL IVO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. BY THEN... IVO WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO MEANDER IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 23.5N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 24.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 25.8N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression IVO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-08-25 04:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 250231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 19 36 36 40 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 61 57 46 44 44 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 36 23 18 19 16 NA NA HURRICANE X X X 1 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X X 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression IVO (EP4/EP092013)
2013-08-25 04:31:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IVO FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of IVO was located near 23.5, -114.4 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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