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Tropical Depression Carlotta Graphics
2018-06-18 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jun 2018 08:37:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jun 2018 09:23:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-06-18 10:36:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180836 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0900 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-06-18 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180836 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 Successive bursts of deep convection have been occurring since last evening, each one to the northwest of the previous one, which likely indicates that Carlotta still has a tight circulation and well-defined center. As such, the cyclone has not yet dissipated nor degenerated into a remnant low. Satellite classifications support maintaining a 25-kt initial intensity. Based on the propagation of convection, Carlotta's center appears to be nearing the coast of Mexico, and the initial motion is northwestward, or 305/4 kt. The depression is entering an area of low-level southerly to westerly winds, which should force its small circulation closer to land. Due to steep coastal mountains, however, the low-level center is unlikely to move inland and should dissipate near the coast. A 12-hour forecast point based on persistence is provided, but Carlotta could dissipate at any time. Each time a pulse of deep convection occurs, it is displaced south of the center due to 10-15 kt of north-northeasterly shear. The shear is not expected to decrease in the short term, which could allow Carlotta to continue as a tropical depression until the circulation is disrupted by the terrain of Mexico and dissipates. Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.7N 102.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 18.1N 103.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlotta (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-18 10:36:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOTTA INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MICHOACAN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.7, -102.6 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Public Advisory Number 15
2018-06-18 10:36:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 180836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlotta Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 ...CARLOTTA INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MICHOACAN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 102.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 102.6 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the day. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Carlotta is expected to dissipate by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima coasts, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. SURF: Southwesterly swells are affecting the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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