je.st
news
Tag: kiko
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 30
2019-09-19 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192045 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds. Since then, convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the tropical storm. ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only 35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt. Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity, little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls for weakening. Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than usual. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2019-09-19 22:45:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 192045 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20(22) 17(39) 5(44) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) 7(21) 3(24) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-19 22:45:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO SMALLER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 16.3, -129.3 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
kiko
Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 30
2019-09-19 22:45:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192045 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO SMALLER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 129.3W ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 129.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest motion is expected later today through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected this weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow re-strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may regain hurricane strength within the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 30
2019-09-19 22:45:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192045 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 90SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 129.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 129.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] next »