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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-13 11:00:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 09:00:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 09:00:03 GMT
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kiko
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-13 10:52:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130852 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko's convective pattern has still not gotten any better organized. There's a small patch of convection near the estimated center, with another larger cluster much farther south. For the most part, however, the circulation consists of a broken low- and mid-level cloud deck with a few embedded showers. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0/30 kt, while objective numbers are only slightly higher. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt, but it's entirely possible that Kiko may not be producing tropical-storm-force winds at this time. The GOES-17 air mass product shows that Kiko is surrounded by some of the driest air over the entire tropical eastern Pacific, which could be contributing to the system's convective struggles. And going forward, it appears that the thermodynamic environment could be less than ideal for significant strengthening, with SHIPS model diagnostics showing environmental stability to be the biggest negative factor. That being said, vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 3 days, so strengthening is likely if the dry air can be mixed out of the circulation. The new NHC forecast continues to show Kiko reaching hurricane strength in about 48 hours, although the peak intensity has been tempered a bit based on the latest guidance. The official forecast is close to a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus aids. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, there is a bifurcation of the models, with the GFS, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and Canadian turning Kiko northwestward or northward into a break in the ridge, and the ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, and the consensus aids maintaining a west-northwestward or even westward heading on days 4 and 5. Due to this divergence, the updated forecast shows a slightly slower motion toward the end of the forecast period, but the track itself is very similar to the previous forecast, lying near the northern boundary of the southern camp of models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.8N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 21.0N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-13 10:51:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO MOVING THROUGH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND NOT STRENGTHENING... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Kiko was located near 16.8, -113.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-13 10:51:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130851 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO MOVING THROUGH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND NOT STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 113.5W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 113.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-13 10:51:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130851 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.5W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.5W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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