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Tropical Storm Narda Graphics
2019-09-29 16:59:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 14:59:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 15:31:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-29 16:56:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291456 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 The center of Narda either re-formed to the northwest or accelerated its forward motion during the night, as surface observations from Mexico and satellite imagery indicate that it is now located along the coast of Mexico near Lazaro Cardenas. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on the Mexican observations and little change in the satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. First-light visible imagery suggests that the cyclone's circulation is elongated east-west, with the center located on the eastern side of the elongation. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 325/13 kt. Over the next couple of days, Narda will be steered generally northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a large high pressure area. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the northern Baja California peninsula from the west should cause the system to turn north-northwestward. The new forecast track is parallel to, but moved significantly to the right of, the previous forecast due to the initial position and motion, and it keeps the center over portions of western Mexico for the next 12-24 hours before bringing the system over the southeastern and eastern portions of the Gulf of California. The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The official forecast will follow the scenario of the previous forecast in calling for Narda to weaken to a depression while over Mexico, and then call for some re-intensification later in the forecast period when the system emerges over water in a light shear environment. However, there are two alternative scenarios. The most likely of these is that the circulation dissipates as it passes over the mountains of western Mexico, which is a distinct possibility if the system goes as far inland as currently forecast. The least likely is that the center reforms offshore, which could lead to significant changes in both the intensity and the track forecasts. The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.1N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 19.3N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1200Z 21.5N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 01/0000Z 23.2N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 24.5N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 26.5N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 28.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 5
2019-09-29 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291455 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...CENTER OF NARDA MOVING ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR LAZARO CARDENAS... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 102.1W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over or near portions of the western and southwestern coasts of Mexico through tonight, then emerge over the Pacific on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as the center moves over land, and Narda is forecast to weaken to a depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are now occuring within the warning area and should continue for the next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-09-29 16:56:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 291455 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 102.1W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 360SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 102.1W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 103.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 105.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 108.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.5N 109.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 102.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-29 15:17:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF NARDA NOW NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:15 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 17.6, -101.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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