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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 3A
2013-07-05 07:48:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050548 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1100 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 ...RAINBANDS OF ERICK BRUSHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS * WEST OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.7 WEST. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK HAS JOGGED TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO... SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF MANZANILLO BY LATE SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-05 05:10:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 02:47:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 03:04:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 3
2013-07-05 04:59:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 050259 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 CORRECTED TO ADD 50 KT WIND RADII AT 24 HOURS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS * WEST OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 99.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.8N 101.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.6N 102.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.4N 103.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.3N 105.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.9N 108.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 21.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-07-05 04:56:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050256 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK IS DOMINATED BY A MASS OF COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO INCREASED AND GAINED SLIGHTLY MORE CURVATURE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A PAIR OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES WITHIN INDICATED THAT THE CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED BUT EXPOSED NORTHEAST OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB OF T2.5/35 KT...MICROWAVE-ADJUSTED OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS OF 3.0...AND AN AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT RECENT FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/10. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE HEADING OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND WEST- NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLIDING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT EXACTLY WHEN THE CHANGE IN TRACK WILL OCCUR. THIS DETAIL TO THE FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE ERICK WILL TRACK FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ECMWF AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PREVAILS OVER THE STORM... ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION THAT CAN OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...DESPITE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES MAY WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL HAVE LIKELY ALREADY REACHED COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS FOREAST BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LATEST TREND AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...IVCN AND ICON. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.9N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 15.8N 101.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.6N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 17.4N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 18.3N 105.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 21.2N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-07-05 04:46:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050246 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 4 6 13 24 33 TROP DEPRESSION 6 13 16 18 30 41 45 TROPICAL STORM 91 75 61 57 52 33 22 HURRICANE 3 11 19 20 6 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 10 16 16 5 2 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 17(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X 18(18) 11(29) 3(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) L CARDENAS 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 18(19) 4(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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