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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-06 05:11:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 02:53:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 03:05:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-07-06 04:49:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060249 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ALTHOUGH THE HINT OF AN EYE OBSERVED EARLIER IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY IS NOT DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A WELL DEFINED RING OF CONVECTION WHICH NORMALLY LEADS THE FORMATION OF AN EYE. A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS NOT A HURRICANE YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...ERIC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS A MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AND THIS BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST RUN. IN FACT...THE GFS MADE A BIG CHANGE IN THE 1800 UTC RUN AND NOW HAS ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THIS MEANS THAT THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERICK WILL BE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. SINCE THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO CABO CORRIENTES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.7N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.9N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 20.2N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.4N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-07-06 04:48:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060248 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 2 3 32 41 50 TROP DEPRESSION X 3 7 17 43 43 40 TROPICAL STORM 24 44 57 62 24 16 10 HURRICANE 76 53 35 17 1 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 45 28 15 1 X X HUR CAT 2 5 6 5 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 2 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 65KT 55KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 13(31) X(31) X(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 10(29) X(29) X(29) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 34 1 6( 7) 16(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 2 26(28) 22(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 12 64(76) 4(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 1 20(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 18 51(69) 2(71) X(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) MANZANILLO 50 1 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MANZANILLO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 13 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 6( 7) 35(42) 8(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-06 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 the center of ERICK was located near 16.7, -103.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 7
2013-07-06 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060248 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ...ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 103.5W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO... SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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