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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-07-05 22:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052044 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS INTENSIFYING WITH A DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHT BANDING FEATURES. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS TO BE IN ITS PRIMITIVE STAGES. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 55-60 KT FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED...AND 60 KT IS CHOSEN BASED ON THE CONTINUED UPWARD TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INITIAL FORWARD MOTION OF 300/9...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHIFT APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOLUTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM. WHILE THIS CHANGE STILL KEEPS ERICK OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHTLY LARGER THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A 2-3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS LOWERING COULD BE DUE TO THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF MORE LAND INTERACTION AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS A BIT FASTER. THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS DECREASED SOMEWHAT AFTER 24H TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS...AND IS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 19.1N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 20.4N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-05 22:44:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 the center of ERICK was located near 16.2, -102.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 6
2013-07-05 22:44:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 052044 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ...ERICK APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 102.7W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO... SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF LA FORTUNA BY LATE SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-07-05 22:44:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052044 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 11 32 41 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 6 12 34 46 44 TROPICAL STORM 49 40 55 59 51 21 14 HURRICANE 52 58 38 28 5 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 48 49 31 23 4 1 X HUR CAT 2 3 7 6 4 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 2 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 65KT 60KT 45KT 30KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 1(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 1 6( 7) 16(23) 4(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 34(37) 14(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 4 30(34) 8(42) X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) MANZANILLO 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 13 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ACAPULCO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 12(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 6
2013-07-05 22:43:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052043 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 103.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 105.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 106.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.4N 108.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 102.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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