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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 7

2013-07-06 04:48:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060248 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 103.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 103.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 104.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 105.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.4N 108.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 103.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics

2013-07-06 01:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 23:41:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 21:04:22 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)

2013-07-06 01:40:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 the center of ERICK was located near 16.4, -103.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 6A

2013-07-06 01:40:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 052340 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 500 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 103.2W ABOUT 115 MI...200 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...315 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO... SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF LA FORTUNA BY LATE SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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