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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 8

2013-07-06 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060835 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0900 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERICK. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.6W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.6W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 104.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.5N 108.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 103.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 8

2013-07-06 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060835 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 103.6W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE...HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BETWEEN THE 18 AND 36 HOUR TIME FRAME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERICK. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN... COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics

2013-07-06 07:44:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 05:44:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 03:05:22 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)

2013-07-06 07:38:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ERICK STILL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 the center of ERICK was located near 17.0, -103.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 7A

2013-07-06 07:38:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060538 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1100 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ...ERICK STILL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 103.8W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO... SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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