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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-05 19:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 17:53:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 15:05:23 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-05 19:45:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK STEADILY INCREASING IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 the center of ERICK was located near 16.0, -102.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 5A
2013-07-05 19:45:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051745 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ...ERICK STEADILY INCREASING IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 102.5W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO... SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF LA FORTUNA BY LATE SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-05 17:11:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 14:54:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 15:05:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-07-05 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051452 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED...WITH TIGHT BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT SOME INNER CORE FEATURES HAVE FORMED WITH PERHAPS THE START OF AN EYEWALL ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT... A BIT BELOW THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DUE TO THE SUGGESTION FROM OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE COULD BE LEADING THE INTENSITY CHANGE. CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR FORECAST THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24H FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/FSSE MODELS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND...THIS FORECAST COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO SOME COOLER WATERS THAT DALILA UPWELLED A FEW DAYS AGO...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS MUCH COOLER WATERS FROM THE TYPICAL NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC COLD TONGUE. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AFTER 24H AND THEN STARTS A MORE RAPID DECLINE...SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/9. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL STAY OVER MEXICO TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING ON ABOUT THE SAME PATH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FIRST 48H...KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT LEAST 90 NMI OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STAY FIRM OR IF AN UPPER LOW WILL ERODE PART OF THE RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS STILL KEEP THE STORM OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.8N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.2N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 19.1N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 10/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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